L'article
suivant, rédigé en anglais par le célèbre politologue et géopoliticien
français Dominique Moïsi, a été publié dans le grand journal anglais, Financial Times, puis traduit en français par Leslie Talaga et publié dans PressEurop.
Nous présentons l'une après l'autre les versions anglaise et française,
comme exercice de traduction journalistique. En même temps, nous
espérons que cela donne à nos lecteurs et lectrices un aperçu de la
politique française, presentée à l'autre côté de la Manche.

Hollande must heed lessons of Louis XVI
Financial Times, 10 April, 2013

by Dominique Moïsi,
senior adviser at the Institut Français des Relations Internationales and a visiting professor at King's College London

French leader may come to be seen as the victim of a revolt against modern elites

François
Hollande may have had François Mitterrand as his role model – a
Machiavellian operator. One might have wished he would be a French
Gerhard Schroeder – a tough reformer. But, in the wake of the Cahuzac
scandal, France's president looks ever more like a modern Louis XVI –
the king guillotined by revolutionaries.

After
five years of economic and social crisis, and with no light at the end
of the tunnel, the French are losing patience not only with their
politicians but with all of their elites Mr Hollande, like Louis, might
prove to be an unexceptional man in exceptional times.

Ancien regime
France fell, taking Louis with it, when the privileges of the
aristocracy were no longer perceived as the counterpart to services
rendered to society. Mr Hollande may be seen in the future as the victim
of a revolt against France's modern elites.

He
sits at the head of the political aristocracy, which spans both the
left and the right, and which has lost contact with the rest of the
country. Their "small deals between friends" were accepted because their
contribution was seen as positive. But in France today, as throughout
Europe, the privileges of the elites are perceived as unfair. It is one
of the keys if not the major explanation for the rise of a populism that
has the unsavoury perfume of the 1930s. Unlike then, there are no
external powers encouraging the hard left or hard right. But a weak
economy and scandals are fuelling extremism.

At
the end of the 18th century the rest of Europe, confronted with the
French Revolution, was in two minds. Was it a unique opportunity to
benefit from the self-exclusion of Paris from Europe's power games or
was the spectre of revolution a threat? Today, the French crisis is
above all a cause for worry in all European capitals – in Berlin, in
particular. Of course, France is not an exception – consider Spain and
its tainted royal family or Italy's paralysed political system.

But
France is different and potentially more preoccupying. The "Grande
Nation", known for its strong state and international ambitions, seems
to be afflicted with nothing less than a regime crisis. It is very
unlikely a Sixth Republic will emerge from the present deteriorating
climate. But the crisis goes beyond the scandal surrounding Jérôme
Cahuzac, who last month resigned as budget minister. In that job, he was
supposed to incarnate the rigour of the French state – yet he lied
repeatedly about holding a Swiss bank account.

This
is the culmination of a process of alienation between the people and
its elites that has followed a series of breaches in the confidence the
French have in the state. Partly, this reflects the government's
inability to fight unemployment but, more deeply, it speaks to the very
erosion of its dignity. No one has contributed to this more than Nicolas
Sarkozy, the former president, with his mixing of the private and
public spheres.

Intent
on restoring the dignity of the state, Mr Hollande wants above all to
appease and reassure the French. But by navigating with excessive
prudence between the logic of the bond markets (no Keynesian policy) and
that of his Socialist party inside (no courageous measures to free up
the labour market), he has reached the exact opposite result. He has
encouraged a climate of negative expectations and suspicion vis a vis
the efficiency of the state.

Have
we reached the climax of the crisis? Not necessarily. It is unclear
what Mr Hollande can do to reinvent himself. He presented himself as a
normal man to win power in the May 2012 presidential elections – perhaps
the main cause for his rapid fall from grace. Never has a president
found himself so unpopular after just 11 months.

Confronted
with the dual rise of the extreme left and (more importantly) right,
his natural tendency to adopt a wait-and-see policy will be
insufficient. Will a new government and in particular a new prime
minister solve the problem? It is far from certain.

Louis
XVI was an honest man who tried to do his best for his country but who
failed to perceive the depth of popular discontent, was unable to
control his entourage and ended up as a tragic figure, a victim of
forces his personality was not prepared to confront. François Hollande
should be wary of such a fate.